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Analyzing Contango for Short Options Strategies

Authors

Sections

Introduction

A member at Predicting Alpha was analyzing the relationship between contango, the upward slope of the term structure, with short strangles, an options structure.

We're going to analyze the relationship between contango and short strangle returns and compare a "contango strategy" with benchmarks.

To have a good understanding of the following topics, you would need to know about options and the volatility surface.

Data

TODO

Contango Strategy

TODO

Exploratory Data Analysis

Short Strangles

blog-strangle-returns-distribution

blog-strangle-prices-distribution

blog-strangle-deltas-distribution

Relationship between Contango and Short Strangles

Deciles

blog-contango-deciles-total

blog-contango-deciles-years

Portfolios

blog-cumulative-portfolios

StrategyTotal PnLMax LossMedian ReturnMean ReturnStdDevTrades
Benchmark$118,134-$20,814$970.40$110.511.711069
Contango Strategy$106,834-$20,814$972.60$139.651.78765

Conclusion

TODO